Finding Value in a Beaten-Down Market
Buying on the dips is a favorite strategy of some stock
investors. But when looking for investment bargains, it's important to avoid a
value trap.
With Wall Street's recent seismic shifts, true stock jockeys
may be tempted to buy on the dips. But this desire raises an important
question: Is a low price by itself a true measure of a value stock? If an
investor plans to hold a stock for the long term, how can an investor gauge its
future potential compared with the broader market?
Value Investing
Defined
Value stocks are those that have fallen out of favor in the
marketplace and are considered bargain-priced compared with book value,
replacement value or liquidation value. Value fund managers typically invest
only when they believe the underlying company has good fundamentals. Many value
investors think that a majority of value stocks are created because investors
overreact to negative events, which can include:
- Disappointing
earnings - A
negative outlook for the industry - A
regulatory setback - Substantive
litigation
The idea behind value investing is that stocks of good
companies will bounce back in time when a company overcomes a short-term
obstacle and investors ultimately recognize fair value. But this recognition
may take time or, in some instances, may never materialize.
Comparative Analysis
Investors looking to avoid a value mistake may want to compare
a stock's recent trend with a peer group or with a broad market index. Here are
some other suggestions:
- Consider
whether a stock has dropped more than the average stock in the S&P 500
during the past three months. - Examine
whether earnings estimates are being revised downward faster when compared with
a peer group. - Compare
analyst estimates of future profit margins to historical margins. If
expectations for future profits exceed past earnings, the company could end up
disappointing investors.
Another technique for potentially avoiding a value mistake is
to look for stocks paying dividends. Dividends historically have been seen as a
sign of management's confidence in healthy cash flow over the long term, as
well as an indicator that management's interests align with shareholders. Even
if a stock price languishes for a period of time, a dividend provides an
investor with something in the way of a return. Note that dividends are not
guaranteed, and a company can reduce or eliminate a dividend at any time.
Perhaps the best strategy for avoiding a value mistake is to
combine value stocks with growth stocks, international stocks, and other types
of equities to pursue diversification. Although there are no guarantees, owning
some of each could help to balance an equity portfolio over the long term.1
Source/Disclaimer:
1Foreign investments involve greater risks than
U.S. investments, including political and economic risks and the risk of
currency fluctuations, and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in
stocks involves risks, including loss of principal. Diversification does not
ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.
Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by
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© 2011 McGraw-Hill
Financial Communications. All rights reserved.
September 2011 — This column is provided through the
Financial Planning Association, the membership organization for the financial
planning community, and is brought to you by Ronald J VanSurksum, CFP®, a local
member of FPA.





