22
Sep 11

Finding Value in a Beaten-Down Market

Finding Value in a Beaten-Down Market

Buying on the dips is a favorite strategy of some stock
investors. But when looking for investment bargains, it's important to avoid a
value trap.

 

With Wall Street's recent seismic shifts, true stock jockeys
may be tempted to buy on the dips. But this desire raises an important
question: Is a low price by itself a true measure of a value stock? If an
investor plans to hold a stock for the long term, how can an investor gauge its
future potential compared with the broader market?

Value Investing
Defined

Value stocks are those that have fallen out of favor in the
marketplace and are considered bargain-priced compared with book value,
replacement value or liquidation value. Value fund managers typically invest
only when they believe the underlying company has good fundamentals. Many value
investors think that a majority of value stocks are created because investors
overreact to negative events, which can include:

  • Disappointing
    earnings
  • A
    negative outlook for the industry
  • A
    regulatory setback
  • Substantive
    litigation

The idea behind value investing is that stocks of good
companies will bounce back in time when a company overcomes a short-term
obstacle and investors ultimately recognize fair value. But this recognition
may take time or, in some instances, may never materialize.

Comparative Analysis

Investors looking to avoid a value mistake may want to compare
a stock's recent trend with a peer group or with a broad market index. Here are
some other suggestions:

  • Consider
    whether a stock has dropped more than the average stock in the S&P 500
    during the past three months.
  • Examine
    whether earnings estimates are being revised downward faster when compared with
    a peer group.
  • Compare
    analyst estimates of future profit margins to historical margins. If
    expectations for future profits exceed past earnings, the company could end up
    disappointing investors.

Another technique for potentially avoiding a value mistake is
to look for stocks paying dividends. Dividends historically have been seen as a
sign of management's confidence in healthy cash flow over the long term, as
well as an indicator that management's interests align with shareholders. Even
if a stock price languishes for a period of time, a dividend provides an
investor with something in the way of a return. Note that dividends are not
guaranteed, and a company can reduce or eliminate a dividend at any time.

 

Perhaps the best strategy for avoiding a value mistake is to
combine value stocks with growth stocks, international stocks, and other types
of equities to pursue diversification. Although there are no guarantees, owning
some of each could help to balance an equity portfolio over the long term.1

Source/Disclaimer:

1Foreign investments involve greater risks than
U.S. investments, including political and economic risks and the risk of
currency fluctuations, and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in
stocks involves risks, including loss of principal. Diversification does not
ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by
McGraw-Hill Financial Communications or its sources, neither McGraw-Hill
Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy,
completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any
errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
In no event shall McGraw-Hill Financial Communications be liable for any
indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber's or
others' use of the content.

###

© 2011 McGraw-Hill
Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

September 2011 — This column is provided through the
Financial Planning Association, the membership organization for the financial
planning community, and is brought to you by Ronald J VanSurksum, CFP®, a local
member of FPA.

20
Sep 11

Washington Hotline - September - Week 3 - 2011

Tax Changes in America Jobs Act of 2011
Following his speech to a joint session of Congress, President Obama introduced provisions of the American Jobs Act of 2011.  The $447 billion bill is designed to increase employment and have a positive impact on the economy.

A major feature of the plan is to reduce employees' Social Security payroll taxes in 2011 from 6.2% to 3.1%.  Employers would also receive the same reduction on the first $5 million in employee payrolls.

The American Jobs Act also includes tax credits for hiring injured veterans, long-term unemployed workers and "wounded warriors."  Businesses would be permitted to expense 100% of most acquired property and there would be grants for infrastructure and other purposes.

The Obama administration this week released its proposed methods for offsetting the $447 billion cost.  Approximately $400 billion of new revenue will come from reducing itemized deductions for upper-income Americans.  Those taxpayers in the 33% and 35% tax brackets would have reduced deduction benefits for state and local taxes, mortgage interest and charitable deductions.  Even though they pay tax at the higher brackets, their tax savings from these deductions will be limited to the 28% bracket under the White House proposal.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) responded to the American Jobs Act on September 13.  He stated, "I will say that there certainly were areas that the President laid out that I believe we can work on together."  He indicated that the House and the President had areas of agreement on tax relief for small businesses.  He also believed that they could agree to reduce regulations, particularly for infrastructure projects.

However, Leader Cantor was quite concerned about the impact of reducing the deduction value of charitable gifts for upper-income taxpayers.  He stated that the White House "tax proposals are going to impose taxes on charitable contributions and in fact impact at least 40% of tax-deductible charitable contributions.  The question is why would we want to put an impediment in the way of the charities accessing funding when the charities are the ones out there helping people in need right now?"

Editor's Note: The American Jobs Act will now enter the legislative process in the House and Senate.  It is also likely to be considered by the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction.

Will Supercommittee Reform Taxes?

The six Democrats and six Republicans on the Joint Select Committee for Deficit Reduction are engaged in regular meetings.  They are tasked with finding a minimum of $1.2 trillion and potentially $1.5 trillion or more of savings in order to reduce the deficit.  It will require seven favorable votes on any plan for it to be submitted to Congress.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) called this week for the supercommittee to take up the challenge of reform of the tax code.  He suggested that a comprehensive reform would be important for the recovery of the economy.  However, Boehner also emphasized that he felt reform should be revenue-neutral.  He suggested that there should not be tax increases because "tax increases destroy jobs."

Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) forwarded a proposal to the supercommittee with seven specific tax provisions.  These include the following items.

1.  Offshore Tax Abuse – Reduce the shifting of income to tax havens overseas with new legislation.

2.  Corporate Stock Options – Insure that corporations may not take deductions greater than the actual book expense for the stock options.

3.  Carried Interest – Require hedge fund managers to pay ordinary income tax on earnings rather than the lower capital gains tax paid under their partnership structures.

4.  Derivative Investments – Eliminate the "blended rate" of part ordinary income and part capital gains and tax at the higher ordinary rate.

5.  Capital Gains – Return the long-term capital gains tax rate from 15% to the prior 20%.

6.  Income Taxes – Increase the 35% top bracket back to the 39.6% rate of the late 1990s.

7.  Electronic Tax Liens – Replace the present paper system with electronic liens to facilitate collection by the IRS.

Six-Month Estate Tax Extension

In Notice 2011-76; 2011-40 IRB 1 (13 Sept 2011), the IRS announced a six-month extension for filing estate tax returns and paying estate tax for 2010 decedents.

The IRS Form 706 Estate Tax Return is normally due nine months after the date of the death.  Most executors have typically requested a six-month estate tax return extension.  However, the tax normally is required to be paid within nine months of death.

Under this Notice, executors may file Form 4768, Application for Extension of Time to File a Return and/or Pay U.S. Estate (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Taxes and receive a six-month extension in both the filing date and payment of estate tax.  Executors for decedents who passed away from January 1, 2010 to December 16, 2010 will have their due date for filing returns and paying tax extended until March 19, 2012.  This is a recognition of the challenges executors and estate attorneys face in addressing the options for 2010.  The six-month extension will permit executors and attorneys a greater period of time to gather all of the relative documents and appraisals to file the estate tax return.

Executors of 2010 decedents with death dates from Dec. 17 to Dec. 31 who request an extension will have 15 months to file and pay estate taxes.

Most larger estates will make a Sec. 1022 election to opt out of the estate tax.  While they will not pay estate tax, the larger estates will then be subject to carry-over basis rules.  The larger estates will be required to file IRS Form 8939.  Fortunately, the Notice changes the Form 8939 filing date from November 15, 2011 to January 17, 2012.

Estates with values moderately in excess of $5 million may choose to file the estate tax return and pay a moderate estate tax.  In exchange for payment of the estate tax, they will receive a step-up in basis on most assets.  It may be beneficial to pay a modest or moderate estate tax and reduce future potential capital gains tax exposure.

Larger estates are much more likely to make the Sec. 1022 election out of estate tax.  However, these estates may need to gather extensive records to document the basis in the estate assets.  The IRS has still not released the final Form 8939, "Allocation of Increase in Basis for Property Acquired from a Decedent."  It is anticipated that this form will be released later this year.

Applicable Federal Rate of 2.0% for September – Rev. Rul. 2011-20; 2011-36 IRB 1 (18 Aug. 2011)

The IRS has announced the Applicable Federal Rate (AFR) for September of 2011.  The AFR under Sec. 7520 for the month of September will be 2.0%.  The rates for August of 2.2% or July of 2.4% also may be used.  The highest AFR is beneficial for charitable deductions of remainder interests.  The lowest AFR is best for lead trusts and life estate reserved agreements.  With a gift annuity, if the annuitant desires greater tax-free payments the lowest AFR is preferable.  During 2011, pooled income funds in existence less than three tax years must use a 2.8% deemed rate of return. Federal rates are available by clicking here.

19
Sep 11

AAM Weekly Market Wrap September 19 2011

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks rallied this week as concerns in Europe
eased.  The S&P 500 index gained
5.35% to close at 1,216.  Oil also gained
adding 0.77% to close at $87.91 per barrel.
Gold dropped 2.66% to $1,810 per oz.
The dollar lost 0.74% against other major world currencies to close at
$76.59.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
-3.31%, The Dow Jones Index -0.59, The NASDAQ -1.15%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index -8.85%, EAFE International -13.37%.
The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 2.08% and the 30 year is
yielding 3.34%.  Both yields are lower for
the week and the year.

On Monday stocks gained 8 points as reports that China may
purchase Italian debt erased early loses.

Tuesday the index added another 11 points despite small
business confidence being down for the 6th straight month.

Wednesday the market jumped 16 points as continued progress
in European debt woes added to market confidence.  US retail sales were lower.

Thursday stocks surged 20 points as European banks added to
the better news overseas and US industrial production made gains.  On the negative side, jobless claims and
inflation moved higher, regional manufacturing was lower.

Friday the index added 7 points on heavy volume as
University of Michigan consumer sentiment posted better than expected results.

 

 

Stocks made steady gains every day this week as Eurozone debts
concerns eased somewhat with China rumored to purchase Italian debt and
Euro-banks posting good news.  US
economic data was pretty quiet this week highlighted by increases in industrial
production and consumer sentiment.

We continue to move in the range of +/- 10% on the S&P 500
much like we did last summer.  Markets
are looking for direction from Europe.
Are we going to have a major collapse in Greece?  Will that spread to other European nations
and then to the US.  Can the banks handle
the default of Greece?  2011 investment
returns probably hinge on the answers to these questions.  Long-term we need to just get past this and
the possible impact on the markets and concentrate on growing the world
economy.

Mortgage rates moved higher this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.53%
and the 30-year rate is at 4.75%. These rates are as of 09/16/2011 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to
watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday
– Housing Market Index

Tuesday – Housing Starts

Wednesday – Existing Home Sales / FOMC Meeting Announcement

Thursday –Weekly Jobless Claims

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

August 15, 2011