31
Oct 11

AAM Weekly Market Update - October 31 2011

 

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks gained for their 4th straight
week and 5 of the last 7 as Europe makes a debt deal and the US GDP grows
faster than expected for the 3rd quarter.  The S&P index surged 3.78% on the week to
close at 1,285.08.  Commodities surged as
well.  Oil gained 7% to close at $93.54 per
barrel and Gold added 6.45% to finish at $1,745.29 per oz.  The Dollar was lower on the week against
other major world currencies down 1.69% to $75.03.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
+2.18%, The Dow Jones Index +5.65, The NASDAQ 3.18%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index -2.89%, EAFE International -5.88%.
The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 2.31% and the 30 year is
yielding 3.35%.  Yields are higher for
the week and lower for the year.

On Monday the S&P 500 index added 16 points on economic
optimism, good signs on a deal in Europe and positive earnings.  China manufacturing broke a 3-month slump and
Japan exports increased.

Tuesday the index dropped 25 points as a Europe debt deal hit
a snag, earnings new disappointed and consumer confidence tumbled.

Wednesday the market added back 13 points as durable goods
orders, new home sales and mortgages beat expectations.

Thursday stocks surged 43 points on an agreement in Europe
on a new Greek bailout plan and US 3Q GDP beat expectations at 2.5%.

Friday the market was flat on moderate volume as personal
income was weaker than expected in September but lower employment costs
tempered inflation concerns and consumer sentiment was revised higher.

 

 

Stocks rallied again this week as a Euro-bailout decision was
reached and economic numbers out of the US continued to slowly improve.  World growth concerns were also eased a bit
as China and Japan contributed to a slightly more positive outlook.

I am glad that Europe has come to some type of agreement on the
Greek bailout.  It appears as though
Greek debt owners are going to lose about 50% of the value of their bonds and
Greece will get some additional funds to support this debt.  However, there are few details on exactly
where these funds are going to come from.
I am hopeful that this is more than just a band-aide on a much larger
problem.

Next it is the US’s turn for a little austerity as the special
group of legislatures meet to figure out how to start to get the US back
towards some type of fiscally responsible budget with a deadline of
late-November.

Mortgage rates were flat this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.625%
and the 30-year rate is at 4.28%. These rates are as of 10/28/2011 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – No major releases

Tuesday – ISM Manufacturing Index / FOMC Meeting begins

Wednesday – ADP Employment Report / FOMC Meeting announcement

Thursday –Weekly Jobless Claims / Productivity & Costs / Factory Orders /
ISM non-Mfg Index

Friday – Employment Situation

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

October 31, 2011

27
Oct 11

Sovereign Debt Downgrades: The Trend Continues

On September 19, Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's
sovereign debt rating by one notch to A from A+. The downgrade follows other
recent downgrades of developed countries, including Portugal, Ireland, Greece,
Spain, and the United States.

The reasons given for the Italian downgrade are similar to
those behind the other downgrades: mounting government deficits and weakening
growth prospects. More specifically, S&P announced that "the downgrade
reflects our view of Italy's weakening economic growth prospects and our view
that Italy's fragile governing coalition and policy differences within parliament
will likely continue to limit the government's ability to respond decisively to
the challenging domestic and external macroeconomic environment."

Rating agencies apply a host of quantitative and qualitative
factors in assessing sovereign credit quality. Unlike corporate debt ratings,
political risk, fiscal and monetary flexibility, and access to external funding
are all factors unique to sovereign ratings. Corporate ratings tend to stick
with a more quantitative approach.

Selected Sovereign Ratings (as of September 23, 2011)

 

Country Current Rating Date of Most Recent
Change
United Kingdom AAA 1978
France AAA 1975
Germany AAA 1983
United States AA+ August 2011, down from AAA
Spain AA April 2010, down from AA+
Italy A September 2011, down from A+
Ireland BBB+ April 2011, down from A-
Portugal BBB- March 2011, down from BBB
Greece CC July 2011, down from CCC

 

For bondholders, the immediate effect of the downgrades is to
increase rates and lower prices on new issues by the downgraded entities. A
downgrade may also imply a drop in secondary market prices for existing issues,
since the downgrade implies greater risk of default. However, this is not
always the case, as recent experience with the U.S. downgrade has shown.
Following S&P's August 5 U.S. downgrade from AAA to AA+, prices on U.S.
Treasuries actually increased, as investors worldwide turned from stocks to the
safe haven of U.S. Treasuries.

Perhaps the most important factors that bondholders should
consider in a downgrade are level and the trend. In the case of the United
States, Spain, and Italy, all three countries still have ratings of A or higher
-- hardly default territory. Greece, on the other hand, is teetering on the
edge of default, while Portugal and Ireland are both considered speculative
grade. The trend is also important, as multiple downgrades, such as those seen
by Greece, tell a story of their own.

Required Attribution

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by McGraw-Hill Financial Communications or its sources, neither McGraw-Hill Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall McGraw-Hill Financial Communications be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber's or others' use of the content.

###

© 2011 McGraw-Hill
Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

October 2011 — This column is provided through the
Financial Planning Association, the membership organization for the financial
planning community, and is brought to you by Ronald J VanSurksum, CFP® , a
local member of FPA.

25
Oct 11

Washington Hotline - October - Week 4 - 2011

Senators Support Charitable Deductions
On October 18, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on charitable deductions.  Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus (D-MT) opened the hearing with a statement of support for "rural philanthropy."  He noted that many non-profit organizations in his home state of Montana were particularly focused on assisting those in the midst of "tough economic times."  Sen. Baucus stated, "These partners rely on the benefits of the charitable tax deduction, which is why we must ensure the deduction is fair and effective."

Baucus continued by stating that 86% of Americans who itemize claim a charitable deduction.  However, he also indicated that "only 27% of all Americans" benefit from charitable deductions because most taxpayers do not itemize.

The Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee is Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT).  He strongly supported the charitable deduction and opposed the White House proposal to limit tax savings from charitable gifts.  In several budgets and proposed bills, the White House has supported limiting the benefits of deductions for higher-income taxpayers by reducing the tax savings from 35% to the 28% bracket.

Sen. Hatch stated, "As state and local governments grapple with budget deficits and revenue shortfalls, Americans in crisis are turning for help in ever greater numbers to churches, charities, shelters and other social welfare groups.  Charitable donations are the lifeblood of charities and the last thing Congress should do is interrupt the blood supply."

Finally, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) is a former chair of the committee.  He agreed with Sen. Hatch and stated that "higher income taxpayers are more sensitive to changes in the tax rules."  Grassley was concerned because "the tax increase resulting from limiting itemized deductions, including the deduction for charitable giving, will result in less money for charity."

Several witnesses at the hearing also supported philanthropy.  Brian A. Gallagher, President and CEO of United Way, stated, "I urge the committee to preserve the charitable deduction for all donors."  He noted that the proposed White House cap could reduce charitable giving from $2.9 billion to $5.6 billion per year.  This loss could have a very harmful affect on the ability of non-profits to serve those in need.

Independent sector President Diana Aviv echoed those same concerns.  She stated, "A 2010 study by the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University found that 85% of high net worth households donated to basic needs charities in 2009, compared with 31% of other taxpayers."  Aviv pointed out that charities providing assistance to the needy frequently receive gifts from higher-income donors targeted by the proposed White House reduction tax savings for charitable gifts.

Social Security Adjustments for 2012

On October 19, the Social Security Administration published a news release with increases in payments for 2012.  Based on the increase in costs this year and the economy, there will be a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2012.  This will result in increases both in contributions for some workers and in payments for retired persons.

Those current workers with higher incomes may be required to make larger payments.  The Social Security wage limit for contributions (OASDI only) will increase from $106,800 to $110,100.  The Medicare contribution of 1.45% will continue to apply to all earnings.  Approximately 10 million workers are affected by this increased limit that changes their total contribution.

Social Security will continue to include the OASDI component of 6.2% and the Medicare portion of 1.45%, for a total of 7.65%.  This contribution is required by both the employer and the employee.  Self-employed persons will pay the total 15.3%.

The potential reduction in payments for individuals between age 62 and their full retirement age is also indexed.  The exempt portion increases from $14,160 to $14,640 per year.  During the final year prior to the full retirement age, the limit in earnings prior to the full retirement date is increased from $37,680 to $38,880.  Workers who exceed the applicable limit will lose $1 for every $2 in earnings above that amount.

The maximum payment at full retirement age will increase from $2,366 per month to $2,513 per month.  For all individuals receiving Social Security  payments, the average payout is projected to increase from $1,186 to $1,229 per month.

Estate Exclusion Rises to $5.12 Million

In Rev. Proc. 2011-52; 2011-45 IRB 1 (20 Oct 2011), the IRS published inflation adjustments for income, gift and estate taxes for 2012.

There are several changes that affect gift and estate taxes.  The applicable exclusion amount for gift and estate taxes is now indexed.  It will increase from $5 million in 2011 to $5.12 million in 2012.  The annual exclusion amount for present interest gifts will remain $13,000.

For qualified farm and ranch property, the reduction due to special use valuation under Sec. 2032A will be limited to $1,040,000.  Gifts to a non-citizen spouse are limited to $139,000.  Finally, for the extension of estate tax payments under Sec. 6166, the 2% interest portion of the estate tax is increased to $1,390,000.

Multiple changes were made to income tax provisions.  There are updated brackets for married couples filing jointly, single persons, heads of household, married filing separately and trusts.  The top 35% tax bracket will be $388,350.  For trusts, the top bracket starts at $11,650.

The "kiddie tax" exclusion will continue to be $950.  Standard deductions will also increase.  The married couple filing jointly deduction will be $11,900.  Heads of household will receive $8,700 and single persons $5,950.  The aged/blind additional deduction of $1,150 or $1,450 for single persons and heads of household will remain unchanged.

The personal exemption will increase to $3,800.  Those who qualify for expensing deductions may use a limit up to $139,000.

Finally, charitable gift limits for token gifts also will increase.  A "low cost" article is a premium for donors with the logo or other identifying information of the charity.  If a person makes a gift of $49.50 or more, the charity may transfer a "low cost" article under the applicable limit to the donor with no tax impact.

For individuals who make larger gifts, the premium may be up to 2% of the gift, but may not exceed $99.00.

Pension Limits Indexed for 2012

In Ir-2011-103 (20 Oct 2011), the IRS published the enhanced pension limits for 2012.

Elective contributions to a 401(k) or 403(b) are increased from $16,500 to $17,000.  Individuals who are age 50 and above will continue to be permitted to contribute an additional $5,500.

The IRA contribution limit is unchanged at $5,000.  For individuals who are making a contribution to a traditional IRA and are covered by a workplace plan, the phase-out limits for single persons will be $58,000 to $68,000.  Married couples filing jointly who are covered by qualified retirement plans have a phase-out range of $92,000 to $112,000.  For a married couple where one spouse is not covered, the phase-out limits are $173,000 to $183,000.

Roth IRA phase-outs will also increase.  These limits will be $173,000 to $183,000 for married couples filing jointly, or $110,000 to $125,000 for singles and heads of households.

For defined benefit plans under Sec. 415(b)(1)(A), the annual benefit limitation increases from $195,000 to $200,000.

The contribution limit for Sec. 415(c)(1)(A) plans is increased from $49,000 to $50,000.  Finally, the annual compensation limit for qualified contribution to several plans is increased from $245,000 to $250,000.

Applicable Federal Rate of 1.4% for November – Rev. Rul. 2011-25; 2011-45 IRB 1 (18 Oct. 2011)

The IRS has announced the Applicable Federal Rate (AFR) for November of 2011.  The AFR under Sec. 7520 for the month of November will be 1.4%.  The rates for October of 1.4% or September of 2.0% also may be used.  The highest AFR is beneficial for charitable deductions of remainder interests.  The lowest AFR is best for lead trusts and life estate reserved agreements.  With a gift annuity, if the annuitant desires greater tax-free payments the lowest AFR is preferable.  During 2011, pooled income funds in existence less than three tax years must use a 2.8% deemed rate of return.