29
Nov 11

Washington Hotline - November Week 4 2011

Congress Goes Back to Work
Following the failure of the Supercommittee to agree on a deficit solution of $1.2 trillion, Congress departed for the Thanksgiving holiday.  When Congress returns in December, it will continue to face the deficit issue.

The Co-chairs of the Supercommittee are Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).  They issued a joint statement and noted, "Despite our inability to bridge the committee's significant differences, we end this process united in our belief that the nation's fiscal crisis must be addressed and that we cannot leave it for the next generation to solve.  We remain hopeful that Congress can build on this committee's work and can find a way to tackle this issue in a way that works for the American people and our economy."

Several moderate members of Congress also urged continued deficit reduction efforts.  Senate Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) indicated he was disappointed but that "The fiscal challenge remains and has to be dealt with.  A balanced and fair package has to include both entitlement and tax reforms that lower spending and raise revenue."

A group of conservative Democrats in the House known as the Blue Dogs also expressed concern.  Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) noted that there was "broad bicameral, bipartisan support the Supercommittee had from nearly 150 members of Congress to 'go big' and come up with a comprehensive, $4 trillion deficit reduction plan that puts our country on a long-term fiscally sustainable path."  The Blue Dogs have on numerous occasions discussed the importance of a major solution to the deficit challenges.

Editor's Note: Congress will again face the need to find a comprehensive deficit solution next year.  The Bowles-Simpson fiscal committee and the Blue Dogs both agree that a solution should be approximately $4 trillion.  This debate on the balance of tax increases and spending cuts to address the budget deficit solution will continue during 2012.

President Proposes 2012 Payroll Tax Cut

President Obama traveled to Manchester, New Hampshire to speak at a high school.  He proposed a new payroll tax cut in the American Jobs Act of 2011.  In the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010, the employee contribution for Social Security was reduced from 6.2% to 4.2% for 2011.  This reduction reduced employee taxes and resulted in lower contributions to the Social Security fund for 2011.

President Obama proposed a reduction again for 2012.  The American Jobs Act reduces the employee contribution from 6.2% to 3.1% for the year.  In addition, there also would be a 3.1% reduction in the employer's share for the first $5 million in payroll contributions.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) suggested that he was willing to work with the President on this proposal.  He stated, "We told the President in September that we stand ready to have an honest and fruitful discussion with him regarding the payroll tax extension."

Proposed Cap on Charitable Deductions

On November 17 the Council on Foundations conducted a panel discussion with several economists and Foundation representatives.  The topic of the conference was the proposal by the White House to cap charitable deduction tax savings at the 28% bracket.  Under the White House proposal, individuals in the 33% and 35% bracket would save taxes only at the 28% rate.  Loss of part of their potential tax benefit may affect gifts by major donors.

Patrick Rooney, Executive Director of the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University, reported on a recent survey on the proposed cap.  The study determined that the 28% cap would have a significant impact on charitable giving for individuals with higher incomes.  The giving loss would be estimated at 0.7% for the year 2010.  However, the White House proposal for increased marginal rates would lead to an additional 0.9% reduction in charitable giving.  If both changes were enacted, there would be a 1.3% total decline or $2.43 billion based on 2010 statistics.  In future years, this reduction in charitable giving could increase.

Rooney observed that the loss in giving comes at a time when needs are great.  He stated, "One of the things that happens during a recession and during a soft recovery is that more people are unemployed, more people are homeless, more people are hungry."  As the need for relief services increases, any loss of charitable giving will have significant impact.  Because of cutbacks in both federal and state budgets, many of the programs assisting those in serious need have been reduced.

Eugene Steuerle is the Richard B. Fisher Chair at the Urban Institute.  He suggested that it may be logical to limit some itemized deductions, but that charitable giving should be supported.  He noted, "One of the major goals of the charitable deduction is to provide an incentive so there is more giving.  You don't want to cap it."

Editor's Note: While there is a need to increase tax revenue, Steuerle is correct that it makes much greater sense to use selective caps on specific itemized deductions.  Charities already have a limit of 50% of adjusted gross income for cash gifts and 30% for appreciated property gifts.  In addition, there is no deduction for gifts of ordinary income assets.  A more prudent way to proceed would be to enact specific limits on other types of itemized deductions.  The challenge for Washington is that there will be great political heat if Congress and the White House decide to cap deductions for state and local taxes, mortgage interest or medical care.

Applicable Federal Rate of 1.6% for December -- Rev. Rul. 2011-31; 2011-49 IRB 1 (17 Nov. 2011)

The IRS has announced the Applicable Federal Rate (AFR) for December of 2011.  The AFR under Sec. 7520 for the month of December will be 1.6%.  The rates for November of 1.4% or October of 1.4% also may be used.  The highest AFR is beneficial for charitable deductions of remainder interests.  The lowest AFR is best for lead trusts and life estate reserved agreements.  With a gift annuity, if the annuitant desires greater tax-free payments the lowest AFR is preferable.  During 2011, pooled income funds in existence less than three tax years must use a 2.8% deemed rate of return. Federal rates are available by clicking here.

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Nov 11

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - November 28, 2011

Weekly Market Wrap: The “Supercommitte” announced their failure to
make a deal and continuing Europe woes pushed the markets lower this holiday
week.   The S&P 500 slumped another
4.69% to close at 1,158.67.  Gold and Oil
continued to trend lower this week as well.
Gold was 2.44% lower at $1,680.78 and Oil was 0.93% lower at
$96.50.  The Dollar moved higher against
other major world currencies at $79.60 up nearly 2%.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
-7.87%, The Dow Jones Index -2.98, The NASDAQ -7.97%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index -14.99, EAFE International -20.33%.
The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 1.97% and the 30 year is
yielding 2.92%.  Yields are lower for the
week and lower for the year.

On Monday the S&P 500 index dropped 23 points on moderate
volume as the US Supercommittee announces failure to reach a deal, China warns
on economic struggles and US existing home sales increased.

Tuesday the index lost 5 points on moderate volume as US 3rd
Quarter GDP was revised downward from 2.5% to 2%, Mid-Atlantic manufacturing
data was higher and Moody announced no US credit downgrade.  In Europe the IMF committed support to the
Euro-zone.

Wednesday the index slumped 26 points on moderate volume as China
and Europe manufacturing data was lower and a German bond auction was more
difficult than expected.  In the US
durable goods orders were lower, consumer sentiment was revised lower, weekly jobless
claims were up slightly, personal spending was lower and personal incomes were
higher.

Thursday the markets were closed – I hope you all had a HAPPY
THANKSGIVING!!

Friday the market 3 points on light volume as Germany
reiterated its opposition to Euro-bonds and an Italian debt auction pushed
yields above 7%.

 

 

The European debt crisis is really beginning to show up in the
bond yields of various European countries.
Yields above 7% are considered to be unsustainable and much of Italy’s
debt is now above that level making it very difficult for them to borrow any
additional money.  German yields have
pushed higher as well but at a much more reasonable rate of 2%.

The economic numbers this week were a bit disappointing but the
trend is still better and nothing this week was bad enough to indicate a
reversal.  Housing continued to show an
improvement with better than expected existing home sales data on Monday.

The markets indicated a sigh of relief on Tuesday when Moody’s
indicated that it will not downgrade US debt any further based on the
Supercommittee failure.

Black Friday seemed to be a huge success for the retailers and
hopefully is just the beginning of a great holiday season.

Mortgage rates were higher this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.5%
and the 30-year rate is at 4.21%. These rates are as of 11/25/2011 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – New Home Sales

Tuesday – Consumer Confidence / Home Prices

Wednesday – Pending Home Sales / ADP Employment / Productivity

Thursday –Weekly Jobless Claims / ISM Manufacturing / Motor Vehicle Sales

Friday – Employment Situation

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

November 28, 2011

25
Nov 11

Estimating Your Social Security Benefits

With growing uncertainty about the future of Social Security
funding, the Social Security Administration (SSA) suspended mailings of its
annual statements. The move is expected to save the agency $60 million in
fiscal 2012.

Previously, the SSA had sent all working Americans an annual
statement about three months before their birthday. The statement included
one's lifetime earnings record, as well as estimates of retirement, disability,
and family survivor benefits. It also reported earned credits, which indicated
if one would qualify for Medicare at age 65.

Mailings for the remainder of 2012 will be limited to workers
over 60, and longer term, the agency is working on an online download option for
everyone else.

In the interim, you can access the same information online at
SSA.gov, using one of the following methods:

  • The Retirement Estimator gives estimates
    of your retirement monthly benefit, based on your actual Social Security
    earnings record. The calculator shows early (age 62), full (ages 65-67
    depending upon your year of birth), and delayed (age 70). The Retirement
    Estimator also lets you create additional "what if" retirement
    scenarios based on current law.
  • If you do not have an earnings record with Social Security or cannot access it,
    there are also other benefit calculators that do not tie into your earnings
    record. The calculators will show your retirement benefits as well as
    disability and survivor benefit amounts if you should become disabled or die.

Social Security should be a part of your retirement income
planning. Make a point of checking out your estimated benefits at least
annually so you know how much to expect -- and how much you'll need to provide
from your own savings.

 

Also, remember that Social Security benefits don't
automatically increase every year. In 2011, benefits stayed the same as the
previous year. For 2012, benefits will rise by 3.6% to reflect an increase in
inflation

###

November 2011 — This column is provided through the
Financial Planning Association, the membership organization for the financial
planning community, and is brought to you by Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP® , a
local member of FPA.

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