23
Apr 12

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - April 23, 2012

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks halted a two-week drop and added 0.60%
to close at 1,378.53.  Gold moved higher
as well adding 1.55% to $1,642.19.  Oil
slipped 0.58% to close at $103.05.  The
dollar was lower against other major world currencies falling 0.88% to $79.19.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

  • The S&P index +9.62%
  • The Dow Jones Index +6.64%
  • The NASDAQ Index +15.17%
  • The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +8.52%
  • EAFE International Index +6.98%
  • The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 1.97% and the 30 year is yielding 3.13%.  Yields
    were lower for the week and are higher for the year.

 

Monday the S&P 500 index slipped 1 point on moderate volume
as US retail sales beat expectations but N manufacturing and homebuilder
sentiment missed expectations.  Overseas
there was stronger confidence that China will engineer a soft landing for their
economy.

Tuesday stocks jumped 21 points on moderate volume as positive
earnings reports pushed stocks higher.
Housing starts were lower for March but new building permits beat
expectations indicating more activity in the coming months.  Industrial production was flat in the
US.  Overseas German investor confidence
hit a 2-year high and the Spain bond auction went well.

Wednesday stocks lost 6 points on moderate volume as data
out of Spain showed that Spain banks may hold significant bad debt.  In the US mortgage applications were up.

Thursday the index dropped 8 points on moderate volume as March
existing home sales missed expectations, jobless claims were up, regional
manufacturing missed expectations but the leading economic indicators rose for
the sixth straight month.

Friday stocks bounced back 2 points on moderate volume as corporate
earnings news pushed stocks higher and German business confidence rose.

 

 

 

Stocks climbed this week but continue to be
stuck under the 1,400 level for the S&P index.  So far corporate earnings for the 1st
quarter have been mixed.  Economic data
has shown a slight slow-down in gains but are mostly still making gains.  Leading economic indicators continued to rise
giving hope that this recovery will continue into the summer months.

The stock rally has paused and is
looking for a direction.  We are
currently trading 2.7% below the recent high of 1,417 on 3/26.  Based on the gains made so far this year a
pause and a pull-back are certainly normal.

Mortgage rates trended a little lower this
week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is at
3.5% and the 30-year rate is at 4.25%. These rates are as of 4/20/2012 and
assume a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage and may include up to 0.5% points.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – No Major Releases

Tuesday – New Home Sales / Home Prices / Consumer Confidence

Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders / FOMC Meeting and Forecasts

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims / Pending Home Sales

Friday – 1st Quarter GDP / Employment Costs / Consumer Sentiment

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum,
CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

April 23, 2012

 

 

16
Apr 12

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - April 16, 2012

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks continue to slide for the second
consecutive week based mostly on global economic growth concerns out of Europe
and China.  The S&P 500 index lost 2%
on the week to finish at 1,370.  Oil
ended down as well dropping 0.58% to $102.84.
Gold managed to add 1.55% to close at $1,656.  The Dollar ended the week lower against other
major world currencies slipping 0.24% to $79.89.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

  • The S&P index +8.96%
  • The Dow Jones Index +5.17%
  • The NASDAQ Index +15.59%
  • The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +7.47%
  • EAFE International Index +5.34%
  • The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 2.00%
    and the 30 year is yielding 3.15%.  Yields
    were higher for the week and are higher for the year.

 

Monday the S&P 500 index dropped 16 points on light volume
as reaction to Friday’s disappointing labor report for March sent stock sharply
lower at the open of the US markets.

Tuesday stocks slumped another 24 points on heavy volume as continued
global economic concerns weighed on the US market.  Small business optimism declined but
wholesale inventories beat expectations.

Wednesday stocks rebounded 10 points on moderate volume as Spanish
and Italian bond yields declined showing a little optimism for Europe.  In the US import prices were higher than
expected, mortgage applications fell and the Fed Beige Book showed continued
moderate expansion for the US economy.

Thursday the index added 19 points on moderate volume as first
quarter earnings season kicked into high gear with mixed results, producer
prices were mostly flat, jobless claims jumped to their highest level since
January and the US trade deficit narrowed.

Friday stocks sank 17 points on moderate volume as China’s
GDP missed projections gaining 8.1% which is its weakest reading in 3 years and
the University of Michigan consumer confidence reading was lower.

 

 

 

Stocks continue to trend lower in the second
quarter as mixed US earning and global growth worries carried throughout the
week.  The week kicked off trading on the
March jobs number which was much lower than expected and could not regain any
traction as China’s GDP slowed.

At this point I am not too worried
about China’s slow down and I am hopeful that the March jobs report was more of
an anomaly rather than a new trend.
Europe continues to face its troubles but has been pretty quiet so far
this year.  The US has yet to really
address its debt problems but I am hopeful that as the election season ramps up
it will get the priority it deserves.

Mortgage rates were flat this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is at 3.625% and
the 30-year rate is at 4.25%. These rates are as of 4/13/2012 and assume a $250,000
conforming rate mortgage and may include up to 0.5% points.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday –Retail sales / Empire State
Manufacturing / Business Inventories / Housing Market Index

Tuesday – Housing Starts / Industrial Production

Wednesday – No Major Releases

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims / Existing Home Sales / Philly Fed Survey

Friday – No Major Releases

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum,
CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

April 16, 2012

 

 

9
Apr 12

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - April 9, 2012

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks stumbled out of the gates for the 2nd
quarter this week posting a small loss.
The S&P 500 index finished the week down 0.74% to 1,398.  Gold was lower as well dropping 2.3% to
$1,630.64.  Oil added 0.34% to close at
$103.44 and the Dollar was higher against other major world currencies adding
1.39% to $80.08.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

  • The S&P index +11.17%
  • The Dow Jones Index +6.90%
  • The NASDAQ Index +18.25%
  • The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +10.43%
  • EAFE International Index +6.62%
  • The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 2.00%
    and the 30 year is yielding 3.13%.  Yields
    were lower for the week and are higher for the year.

 

Monday the S&P 500 index gained 10 points as US
manufacturing grew faster than expected but construction spending was lower.

Tuesday stocks dropped 6 points on moderate volume as
factory orders missed and Fed minutes were released and showed little
enthusiasm for further stimulus.

Wednesday stocks slid 14 points on moderate volume as US
service activity missed expectations and Euro concerns resumed but ADP payrolls
beat expectation and mortgage applications increased.

Thursday the index fell 1 point on moderate volume as to
close out a short holiday trading week.
Jobless claims were down again and near a 4-year low and retail same-store
sales were mostly positive.

The US Stock market was closed on Friday but a report on
March jobs showed 120,000 new jobs which was much lower than expected sending
stock futures lower.

 

Stocks are off to a sluggish start in the 2nd
quarter as some economic indicators gains have slowed.  After such a great 1st quarter it
would be quite normal to see a small pull-back of about 3-5% in the S&P 500
index.  That would indicate a drop to
about 1,330 or so.  Hopefully the recent
jobs number for March was a normal fluctuation and not the beginning of a
trend.

Mortgage rates were flat this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is at 3.625% and
the 30-year rate is at 4.25%. These rates are as of 4/9/2012 and assume a
$250,000 conforming rate mortgage and may include up to 0.5% points.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday –No Major News

Tuesday – Small Business Optimism

Wednesday – Beige Book / Import and Export Prices

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims / Producer Price Index

Friday – Consumer Price Index / Consumer Sentiment

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum,
CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

April 9, 2012