Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks slipped this week on a World Bank global growth downgrade and concerns regarding the limits of global stimulus.

For The Week

• The S&P 500 lost 1.01% to 1,626.73
• Oil added 1.90% to $97.85
• Gold gained 0.80% to $1,390.29
• The US Dollar fell another 1.01% to $80.65 against other major world currencies.

2013 Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

• The S&P index +14.06%
• The Dow Jones Index +15.00%
• The NASDAQ Index +13.38%
• The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +15.54%
• EAFE International Index +5.33%
• 10 Year Treasury Yield is 2.11%, lower for the week and higher for the year
• 30 Year Treasury Yield is 3.39%, lower for the week and higher for the year
• WTI Crude Oil Index +6.57%
• Bloomberg Gold Index -16.95%
• The Dollar Index +1.05% against other major world currencies

Monday the S&P Index lost 1 point on low volume despite an upgrade to the US credit rating by S&P to “stable” 2 years after they initially lowered it.  Overseas trade, lending and inflation data out of China disappointed, Japan 1Q GDP was revised higher, French industrial production beat and Italian GDP and industrial production missed.

Tuesday the index fell 17 points on moderate volume as small business optimism hit a one-year high and wholesale inventories were up.  Overseas, no additional stimulus announcements from Japan and German courts discussed the legality of the Euro bond purchase program.

Wednesday stocks slumped 14 points on moderate volume as doubts regarding the future benefits of global stimulus surfaced and in the US mortgage applications rose.

Thursday stocks rebounded 24 points on moderate volume as jobless claims continued to drop and retail sales beat expectations snapping the first 3-day US stock losing streak of the year.  Overseas Japan’s Nikkei dropped over 6% sending its market into bear territory and the World Bank downgraded world growth estimates.

Friday the S&P 500 lost 10 points on moderately light volume as consumer sentiment declined, industrial production was flat and producer prices rose.

Takeaways from this week:

• The upgrade of the US credit rating was based on the outlook of the US economy and is a good sign for future market prospects.  Overall it was a decent week for US data, but not much data was released.
• World stocks moved lower once again this week with Japan continuing to lead the way.
• The US dollar has slipped considerably over the last few weeks.

Mortgage rates dropped his week.  The national averages as reported by Bloomberg indicate a 15-year rate of 3.07% and a 30-year rate of 3.94%. These rates are as of 06/17/2013 and may include points.

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – NY Manufacturing / Housing Market Index

Tuesday – Consumer Prices / Housing Starts

Wednesday – FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts

Thursday – Jobless Claims / Existing Home Sales / PMI Manufacturing / Philly Manufacturing / Leading Indicators

Friday – No data

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®
Advanced Asset Management, LLC

June 17, 2013

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June 2013 AAM Newsletter

Hello and thank you for reading my e-newsletter.

I hope you find the information useful.  If you enjoy the newsletter please forward to a friend.   Please also let me know what you like to see so that I may continue to provide relevant content.

If you are a client of mine, thank you for your continued business and please update me on any changes in your situation do that I can make the appropriate changes to your financial plan and investments.

If you are not a client please consider giving me a call or emailing me if you would like to begin a plan to get you to your financial goals.  I consider myself different from many of the advisors out there for the following reasons:
1) You will not be pressured to purchase any products because I am a fee-only advisor and a NAPFA® Member (no commission sales)
2) You will have a comprehensive financial plan completed by a Certified Financial Planner ™ Practitioner or CFP® - I have committed to financial planning and continuing education.
3) You will have a reasonable fee for the services performed.  I charge less than the typical large financial planning firm by being a small shop and keeping my business expenses low.

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

For more insight on these groups and myself please click on the following links
www.napfa.org
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Markets

Stocks continued to move higher and have been positive for every month so far in 2013.  Jobs data, home data and retail sales helped push US stocks higher despite a jump in interest rates and disappointing news from overseas.

Index performance                                          May 2013    Year-To-Date (5/31)

• The S&P index                                   +2.08%                 +14.34%
• Dow Jones industrial 30                 +1.86%                 +15.35%
• The NASDAQ Index                         +3.82%                 +14.45%
• The Russell 2000 Small cap           +3.87%                 +15.87%
• EAFE International Index              -3.02%                  +5.65%
• The US Dollar                                     +1.91%                 +4.37%
• Oil                                                           -1.82%                  -0.07%
• Gold                                                      -6.12%                  -17.21%
• Yields moved significantly higher in May, the 10-year treasury is currently yielding 2.16% and the 30 year treasury is yielding 3.31%

May was off to a big start with a very positive April jobs report and positive revisions to previous months pushing the Dow index well above 15,000.  Retail sales and construction data were positive for the month as well.  Consumer confidence hit a six year high but manufacturing data was mixed.

Treasury bonds suffered their worst month since 2010 as concerns that the Fed will begin to slow the asset purchase plan pushed bond yields higher and prices down.

Overseas Japan endured an extremely volatile month dropping more than 7% in one day of trading after an 80% gain over the last 12 months.  The Eurozone unemployment data hit record highs and global growth forecasts were lowered sending International stocks lower for the month.

 
For weekly market updates please visit my blog which is now part of my new website at www.aamllc.com

Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates jumped higher last month.   The national average on mortgage as per Bloomberg.com shows the 15-year rate is now at 3.18% and the 30-year rate is at 4.03%. These rates are as of 6/7/2013 and may include points.   Again, if you have the equity in your home and a 5+ year time frame this could be a great time to refinance and lock in historically low rates.

With the money you save you could be paying off your mortgage sooner, paying off other bills, increasing your cash reserves or building up your long-term investments.

CD Rates
CD rates were mixed over the last month.  Charles Schwab has access to CD’s from banks all over the country.  Here are some of the current CD rates offered.

6 mo CD @ 0.15%             1-Yr CD @ 0.25%
2-Yr CD @ 0.55%              5-Yr CD @ 1.35%

Currently I am not doing much with CD Ladders.  I will start using them again as rates begin to rise.  If you want to know what I am doing as an alternative let me know.

Tips and Suggestions

Do a midyear review of your budget to see how well you’re sticking to spending limits and savings goals.  Make adjustments if necessary.

Are you on track to meet your financial goals?  Do you have a plan to get you where you want to be?  If you do not you probably will not reach your goals.  Let’s make a plan to Maximize your financial potential.

What is your tax plan for 2013?  Is it time for one?

Need help with your 401k?  I am now using GoToMeeting.com to allow me to help review your 401k online and help you rebalance.  We can access the plan together online, I can give you control to log in and then we can discuss and make changes together.  Let me know if you want to discuss!

Are your cash reserves earning less than 1%?  Consider a short-term US treasury fund or Corporate Bond fund to give your secondary cash reserves a yield boost.

I added a new section on my blog for social security tips.  Check out the latest at:
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/06/social-security-tips-june-2013/

If you have any question or if you would like to have help with your financial plan please give me - your Fee-only Certified Financial Planning ™ Practitioner a call.

Articles

All articles are now found on my website which has been combined with my blog: www.aamllc.com

Sector Funds, Are They Worth A Look?
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/05/sector-funds-are-they-worth-a-look/

Understanding Correlation
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/05/understanding-correlation/

High-Yield Bonds: Income Potential at a Price
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/05/high-yield-bonds-income-potential-at-a-price/

In Volatile Markets Investors May Find Comfort in Dividends
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/06/in-volatile-markets-investors-may-find-comfort-in-dividends/

What Are Health Savings Accounts?
http://www.aamllc.com/2013/06/what-are-health-savings-accounts/

Contact Me
Do you want more information on how I can help you?  Give me a call or drop me an email to review or set up a free initial consultation.

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Weekly Blog Updates and My Website www.aamllc.com

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks rebounded this week as the May jobs report fueled a Friday rally.

For The Week

• The S&P 500 gained 0.78% to 1,643.38
• Oil jumped 4.65% to $96.03
• Gold slipped 0.48% to $1,379.25
• The US Dollar fell 1.92% to $81.70 against other major world currencies.

2013 Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

• The S&P index +15.23%
• The Dow Jones Index +16.36%
• The NASDAQ Index +14.89%
• The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +16.28%
• EAFE International Index +4.91%
• 10 Year Treasury Yield is 2.16%, flat for the week and higher for the year
• 30 Year Treasury Yield is 3.32%, higher for the week and higher for the year
• WTI Crude Oil Index +4.59%
• Bloomberg Gold Index -17.61%
• The Dollar Index +2.37% against other major world currencies

Monday the S&P Index added 10 points on moderately-heavy volume as US manufacturing and construction data missed and overseas Japan’s Nikkei hit a 6-week low.

Tuesday the index dropped 9 points on moderate volume as the domestic trade report was positive but traders were uncertain about the upcoming May jobs reports later this week.

Wednesday stocks slumped 22 points on moderate volume as the ADP private sector jobs report missed, the ISM Non-manufacturing report beat but the employment component dropped, factory orders and mortgage applications both dropped and 1Q productivity was revised lower.

Thursday stocks rebounded 14 points on moderate volume as US jobless claims dropped but less than expected and overseas the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both held interest rates steady.

Friday the S&P 500 rallied 21 points on moderate volume as the May employment report was mixed with the number of new jobs created beating expectations at 175,000 but the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.6% and hourly earnings were flat.  Consumer credit expanded but missed expectations.

Takeaways from this week:

• Wall Street rallied this week with a mixed employment report that may keep the Fed asset purchase program going.
• World stocks fell with Japan leading the way.  Japan hit a six week low falling 17% from the top but keep in mind shares have rallied 80% over the last year.

Mortgage rates slipped his week.  The national averages as reported by Bloomberg indicate a 15-year rate of 3.18% and a 30-year rate of 4.03%. These rates are as of 06/10/2013 and may include points.

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – No major data releases

Tuesday – Small Business Optimism

Wednesday – No major data releases

Thursday – Jobless Claims / Retail Sales / Import & Export Prices / Business Inventories

Friday – Producer Prices / Industrial Production / Consumer Sentiment

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®
Advanced Asset Management, LLC

June 10, 2013