9
Jan 12

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - January 09 2012

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive
note surging on Tuesday and trading mostly flat for the remainder of the week
despite positive jobs news.  The S&P
500 index advanced 1.61% to close at 1,277.81.
Gold and Oil moved higher on the week as well.  Oil was up 2.74% to $101.73 and Gold surged
3.4% to $1,617.20.  The dollar was higher
against other major world currencies up 1.26% to $81.25.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
+1.61%, The Dow Jones Index +1.17, The NASDAQ +2.65%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index +1.19, EAFE International -0.41%.  The
10 year treasury is currently yielding 1.96% and the 30 year is yielding 3.02%.  Yields are higher on the week and the year.

On Monday the markets were closed for the New Year holiday.

Tuesday the S&P 500 index surged 19 points on moderate
volume as global manufacturing expands and November construction spending beats
expectations.  Also, Oil hit an eight month
high at $103.

Wednesday the index traded flat on moderate volume as Eurozone
banking concerns resurfaced despite a favorable German bond auction and the
dollar continued to rise against the Euro.
In the US factory orders beat expectations, mortgage applications
declined and auto sales were solid in December.

Thursday the market added 4 points on moderate volume as jobless
claims continued to drop, the ADP jobs report showed a surge in job growth, service
sector activity increased and same store sales were mixed.

Friday the market dropped 3 points on moderate volume as the
private sector added 212,000 jobs dropping the unemployment rate to 8.5% (the
lowest since 2/09).  Europe drove US
stocks lower as Italian and Spanish bond rates rose once again.

 

 

Trading resumed for the new year on a positive note with the
markets surging on Tuesday and managed to hold on to those gains for the
remainder of the week.  Pressure from
Europe markets was not enough to derail continually improving economic data out
of the US.

Europe is going to take considerable time to fix the damage
that has been done (as well as our own debt issues).  As long as Europe can stay somewhat stabilized
in 2012 I believe the US markets will rally on improving economic news.

Mortgage rates were mostly flat this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.35%
and the 30-year rate is at 4.04%. These rates are as of 01/06/2012 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday -  No Major News

Tuesday – NFIB Small Business Optimism

Wednesday – Beige Book Regional Manufacturing Data

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims / Retail Sales / Business Inventories

Friday – Import and Export Prices / Consumer Sentiment

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

January 09, 2012

 

19
Dec 11

AAM Weekly Market Wrap December 19 2011

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks dropped once again on mostly
Euro-concerns as the dollar rose and commodities fell sharply.  The S&P 500 index lost 2.83% to close at
1,219.66.  Oil lost 5.72% to close at
$93.89.  Gold dropped 6.64% to finish the
week at $1,597.46.  The dollar rose this
week against other major world currencies adding nearly 2% to $80.18.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
-3.02%, The Dow Jones Index +2.50, The NASDAQ -3.68%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index -7.86, EAFE International -17.34%.
The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 1.85% and the 30 year is
yielding 2.86%.  Yields are lower for the
week and lower for the year.

On Monday the S&P 500 index lost 19 points on moderate volume
as Euro-zone concerns strengthened pushing the Euro currency and Gold lower and
the dollar higher.  There were no major
economic releases.

Tuesday the index dropped another 11 points on moderate volume
as the Fed help steady and did not indicate any additional stimulus citing
moderate growth for the US.  Retail sales
came in lower than expected but small business optimism rose to a 9-month high.

Wednesday the index lost 14 points on moderate volume as continued
Euro concerns pushed the Euro-currency lower and the dollar higher once
again.  Gold and Oil plunged, mortgage
applications increased and import prices lowered.

Thursday the market stabilized and added 4 points on
moderate volume as weekly jobless claims dropped another $19k to $366k,
regional manufacturing data was positive, industrial production declined, inflation
was tame last month and Spain held a positive debt auction.

Friday the market added 4 points on heavy volume as CPI
results were mixed and a quite day in Europe with a vote of confidence for the
Italian Prime Minister held markets steady.
Friday was a quadruple witching day when options expire and trading is
typically very heavy.

 

 

 

Europe was once again the main driver for
the US markets and lingering concerns over whether or not they can clean up the
debt issues drove down the Euro currency and pushed the US currency
higher.  Treasuries rallied as investors
looked for safety pushing bond yields lower.
Commodities prices tumbled in the US as the dollar strengthened.  The dollar broke through $80 this week, a
level it has not seen since January.

In the US the job market
appears to be healing somewhat as initial jobless claims moved to a 3-year
low.  Much of this may be due to holiday
hires so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues into 2012.  Overall inflation was tamed thanks in part to
lowering oil prices.  A rise in small
business optimism could bode well for the US economy in 2012 as well.

Unless we get a significant
rally the last two weeks of 2011 it appears as though it will be a slightly
negative to flat year in the markets.
Given everything that happened in 2011, that may not be such a bad
thing.  I am looking forward to seeing
what 2012 has in store for us.

 

Mortgage rates were mixed this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.34%
and the 30-year rate is at 3.98%. These rates are as of 12/16/2011 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – Housing Market Index

Tuesday – Housing Starts

Wednesday – Existing Home Sales

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims / GDP 3Q Final / Consumer Sentiment

Friday – Durable Goods Orders / Personal Income & Spending / New Home Sales

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum,
CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

December 19, 2011

 

 

 

5
Dec 11

AAM Weekly Market Wrap - December 5 2011

Weekly Market Wrap: World banks came together this week and
pledged to provide the liquidity needed to help Europe repair itself giving the
markets fuel for the best week in two years.
The S&P 500 index surged over 7% to close at 1,244.28.  Gold and Oil moved higher as well.  Gold was up nearly 4% to $1,745 and Oil
gained 4.69% to close at $101.03.  The
Dollar was lower against other world currencies down 1.24% to $78.61.

Year-To-Date for the major indexes: The S&P index
-1.06%, The Dow Jones Index +3.82, The NASDAQ -0.98%, The Russell 2000 Small cap
Index -6.21, EAFE International -13.10%.
The 10 year treasury is currently yielding 2.04% and the 30 year is
yielding 3.04%.  Yields are higher for
the week and lower for the year.

On Monday the S&P 500 index gained 34 points on moderate
volume as black Friday results showed positive results, new home sales were
higher, rumors from the Euro-zone indicated a new deal and China backed the
IMF.

Tuesday the index added 3 points on moderate volume as US
consumer confidence rebounded sharply to a 4-month high and Italy completed a
successful debt auction.  On the negative
side home prices were down.

Wednesday the index surged 52 points on heavy volume as central
banks around the world united to provide liquidity for the Euro-zone debt
crisis, China cut bank reserve requirement and Standard and Poors downgraded 15
global banks.  In the US pending home
sales were higher, the ADP employment report beat expectations, productivity
was revised lower, Chicago area manufacturing was better than expected and the
Fed Beige Book showed economic expansion across the US.

Thursday the market lost 2 points on moderate volume as
weekly jobless claims were back above the 400k level, the ISM manufacturing
index beat expectations, November vehicle sales were solid, construction spending
was up and the Massachusetts Attorney General filed a lawsuit against five
mortgage lenders for unethical practices.

Friday the market was basically flat on moderate volume as the
economy added 120,000 jobs in November and unemployment moved lower to 8.6%
wrapping up the best week in the markets in 2 years.

 

 

Markets rallied around the world as central banks came
together with a plan to basically buy more time for Europe to repair its credit
issues.  In the US economic data
continued to impress as the US economy
slowly improves.

The November jobs report was the biggest economic news of the
week.  Initially the report looked great
with job growth and an unemployment rate moving lower to 8.6%.  The markets rallied at the open on Friday but
as the report was dissected it was less-positive than initially thought and the
market ended the day with mixed results.
Although 120,000 new jobs were created very few of them were in the
manufacturing sector.  It is great to see
the unemployment rate move lower, below the 9% level but much of that was due
to individuals no longer looking for work rather than finding a job.  Keep in mind the jobs numbers and
unemployment statistics can be misleading at times because they do not take
into consideration laid-off workers who either transition into self-employment or
into retirement after a period of collecting benefits.

All-in-all it was a great week for the markets and a pretty
positive week of economic news setting the stage for a possible Santa Clause
rally into the end of 2011!  Happy
holidays everyone!

Mortgage rates were lower this week.  The Schwab Bank 15-year rate is now at 3.375%
and the 30-year rate is at 4.08%. These rates are as of 12/02/2011 and assume
no points, no origination fee and a $250,000 conforming rate mortgage.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:

Monday – Factory Orders, ISM non-manufacturing index

Tuesday – No Major News

Wednesday – Consumer Credit

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday – Consumer Sentiment / International Trade

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®

Advanced Asset Management, LLC

December 5, 2011