AAM Weekly Market Wrap – November 25, 2012

Weekly Market Wrap:  Stocks surge on optimism over a fiscal cliff resolution, positive data from overseas and continued strong housing data.

 

For The Week

  • The S&P 500 Index  added 3.62% to 1,409.15
  • Oil gained 1.43% to $88.19
  • Gold rose 2.22% to $1,753.56
  • The US Dollar slipped 1.41% to $80.16

Year-To-Date for the major indexes:

 

  • The S&P index +12.05%
  • The Dow Jones Index +6.48%
  • The NASDAQ Index +13.88%
  • The Russell 2000 Small cap Index +8.94%
  • EAFE International Index +8.83%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield at 1.69%
  • 30 Year Treasury Yield at 2.83%
  • WTI Crude Oil Index -10.94%
  • Bloomberg Gold Index +12.12%
  • The Dollar Index -0.10% against other major world currencies

 

 

Monday the S&P 500 surged 27 points on moderate volume as existing home sales beat, home builder sentiment improved and optimism rose regarding a resolution to the fiscal cliff.

Tuesday stocks added 1 point on moderate volume as housing starts and building permits both beat expectations.  Overseas France’s credit rating was downgraded but news of a cease fire in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas gave a boost to shares late in the day.

Wednesday stocks gained 3 points on light volume as US jobless claims fell in-line with expectations, the index of leading economic indicators moved higher, mortgage applications were down and continued uncertainty remained with the Greek bailout.

Thursday markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday stocks surged 18 points on light volume in a short trading day as black Friday retail sales appeared strong and overseas German business sentiment increased and manufacturing in Europe and China increased.

 

Takeaways from this week:

  • Home data in the US continued to be strong and jobless claims started to move lower again after the hurricane Sandy surge.
  • Fiscal cliff concerns continued lower this week while congress was out of session for the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Overseas we are still waiting on a final word on the Greek bailout but a cease fire in the Middle East helped to keep oil prices in check and ease tension in the US markets.
  • As long as things go well with the fiscal cliff negotiations we have a good chance to rally the markets to wrap up 2012.

 

Mortgage rates were slightly higher this week.  The national averages as reported by Bloomberg indicate a 15-year rate of 2.86% and a 30-year rate of 3.45%. These rates are as of 11/23/2012 and may include points.

 

What to watch for on the economic calendar next week:


Monday – Dallas Area Manufacturing

Tuesday – Durable Goods Orders / Home Prices / Consumer Confidence

Wednesday – New Home Sales / Fed Beige Book

Thursday – Jobless Claims / GDP / Pending Home Sales

Friday – Personal Income and Outlays / Chicago Area Manufacturing

 

 

Ronald J. VanSurksum, CFP®
Advanced Asset Management, LLC
November 25, 2012

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Grandville, MI 49418

Phone: (616) 531-5220
rvansurksum@aamllc.com